Cliffhanger

As we lurch from crisis to crisis, revelation to revelation, grotesqueness to grotesqueness, I have been wondering what to make of it all. I just haven’t been able to step back far enough to see the big picture.

Who do I blame for enabling it all to happen? Who is waiting to bring truth and justice to our body politic, and to the leaders of our Justice Department?

Who, in short, is the responsible adult in the town of Washington, D.C.

Then - to give credit where credit is due - my 96 year old mother made sense of it all. All she had to do was toss off an off-handed comment as she was walking out of the kitchen. “It’s just like a movie,” she said.

She was right. Everything that has been happening in Washington for the past year or so - absent the human tragedy being caused to a lot of people, some of whom ironically voted for Donald Trump - has been a grade B cliffhanger, an old movie with lots of action, little substance, car crashes, explosions, trains running off bridges and volcanos erupting. And, the reel ends the same way every time. Every week.

The heroine is in danger. The hero is racing to save her. The villain is bringing his crafty plan to its climax. and then the lights go up. Tune in next week. The movie just goes on and on and on.

                                               What's Playing This Week?

North Korea has missiles, nuclear ones. The world is at the brink of war. Trump meets with the Dear Leader. Peace is achieved. The threat is over. North Korea is back to making missiles once again.

The economy is terrible. It’s the fault of NAFTA. Our trade balance is out of whack. Impose tariffs. A global economic melt-down seems imminent. Who ever knew that the cars we make here have parts from other countries. Our farmers can’t sell soy beans. Ah-Ha, a new deal is reached on trade. Or, at least, a new deal is proposed on trade. Details, they don’t matter. We don’t  have them, actually. But, our president says, a deal is a deal. The economy is saved. Hoo-Ray.  Oh, wait, tax time is coming and I can’t deduct my state and local taxes.

Must be my fault for living in New York, where they have high taxes. Gotta pay for stuff like sewers and subways, commuter rail lines and bridges and highways. Yep, I should have moved to a state that doesn’t need those things. Just a single football stadium that can hold 30,000 people. You know, the same number of workers who pour into Penn Station every 45 minutes or so during the morning commute.

Want to talk about health care? Or using education money to buy guns for teachers in elementary schools? Want to talk about the Mueller investigation, or the continued Russian meddling in our elections? Fake news web sites run by those self-same Russians?

                                                  Topical, Once Again

How about a president being told by the family not to come to the funeral for John McCain, and retaliating by not flying the flag at half mast at the White House. All his advisors told him to do it, and he wouldn’t. Members of his family told him to do it, and he wouldn’t. Even the Republicans in Congress - who complain about Trump in whispers - told him to do it. He wouldn’t.

Finally, the American Legion demanded he do it. He did, after two days of sitting like a petulant child as reporters asked him, over and over again “Was John McCain a hero?”

“Thank you,” he Trumpeted out once or twice.

In a way, it is comforting to know that, no matter how bad things seem, our seat in this national movie house will be there next week, and the week after. The actors in the screen may change. The boat heading for the iceberg in this wheel will be replaced by the hero on a ladder while the villain attaches two or three sticks of dynamite to the bottom rung and lights it. And the lights will come up, and we will all come back next week.

And the show will go on, and on and on. And on again some more.

I wonder how it will all  end in November?

Understanding the 30 per centers, or Economics For Dummies

It is time, in fact it is long past time, to lay out very plainly how I feel about what is going on in Washington, in our nation and in the world at large.  Why not? After all, this is my blog, and it might do some good for someone.

Over the years, working as a reporter, taking part in demonstrations and working politics from the inside when I was in college, and even watching the news now that I am retired, I have sharpened up my objectivity and my cynicism (they often go together) and so am in a perfect position to defend my prediction.

What prediction? Things are going to get worse very soon, and they will continue to get worse for everybody. Young folks. Old folks. Republicans. Democrats. Bankers and lawyers and doctors. Probably the only group that will thrive in the new world order will be migrant workers, at least those whose jobs can not be automated. Or those wonderful one percenters, one of whom - I am sure - will offer Paul Ryan a job,

Now, it might seem to some people that I am casting too wide a net here. Well, here is the reality. Imagine two families - possibly even living on the same block - with completely different views of the still-evolving Trump administration.

One, decidedly liberal in outlook, is in shock. The wife keeps talking about moving to Canada, and has found out that she couldn’t move there because of health issues. (They don’t take everyone who applies). Their kids keep forwarding upsetting news from facebook about the mistreatment of illegal immigrants, the elderly and shootings of black people by police. And, their taxes are going up.

The other family, who have never voted for a Democrat in their lives, think things are going really well. They finally have a strong, decisive president who feels the way they do, who cares about their welfare, and who is finally bringing jobs back to the country. 

They have four grown kids living at home, have to take part-time jobs, and are worried because their taxes are going up too. But, they knew taxes would go up every year under President Obama (not federal taxes, but state and local ones) and they hope that in the next year or two the town and the county will cut unnecessary services and welfare payments, and their taxes will soon start dropping. And, with the right judges being put on the bench, there won’t be any lawsuits to stop that from happening.

Well, with that in mind, time for some Manifesto Principles.

                                               And Here’s The Economics

1 - You have to understand Capitalism. When money was first invented, it was just a convenient way of being able to sell and trade. A tailor didn’t have to make a shirt for a farmer to get 10 gallons of milk. And he didn’t need an endless supply of farmers who needed shirts. He could give the farmer money - which represented his work - and he could get the milk and pay for it. And, the farmer could use that money to buy something else. See, instant economic progress.

Then we discovered that money, all by itself, could make more money. You need my $100 to rent someone’s boat for the sumer? Fine, but you have to pay me back $120 in the fall. Hope you catch and sell a lot of fish. (as a side benefit, we also invented bankruptcy and civil courts).

Finally, we discovered that you could bring together lots of money to buy a house or a factory, and hire people to work for you. And, it worked well. Really well. Far too well, actually. That’s because the beating heart of capitalism is the search to amass capital. You can always do more things with more money, get better interest rates when you loan or borrow it, buy lots of things and corner a market for wine or glass, build a really big army and take over the neighboring kingdom. All from that collection of capital.

What that means in today’s terms is that when we say the economy is doing well, it is doing well - generally - for people who are already wealthy. 

There are lots of people finding work in dead-end jobs, and we argue whether the minimum wage should come out to $400 or $450 a week before taxes. But the flow of capital generally goes in only one direction. The rich are getting richer - the world has more billionaires than ever before - but the middle class is shrinking. And whether the money is being amassed by a corrupt dictator, a brilliant high-tech mogul or a trendy fashion designer, you can be sure that very few people will get to ride on their gravy trains.

Which leaves one of our familes hopeful and the other fearful. One of those families really doesn’t believe that the price of a new car will go up by at least $2,000 in two years (domestic) or by at least $6,000 (imported). But, they don’t expect to need a new car for a few years and the tariffs will be gone by then, so it doesn’t matter to them. 

And here’s the catch. The Trump-supporting family with the four kids is more likely to need another car.

And, that’s how our current economy is working.

Me

One of the things I have rarely done in these blogs is talk about myself. Or my neighbors and my friends. Or my views about politics, and how I got them.

There are good reasons. Modesty is not one, nor is shyness. The biggest is that I have spent more than half a century of working in a profession where you learn from day one that the reporter is never part of the story.

Readers aren’t supposed to care what you think. They aren’t even supposed to know what you think. You are invisible, except of course for your byline. What you write is based on facts, not your own opinions (exceptions, of course, for editorials).

Now this may seem quaint. a kind of Old School throwback. Today a lot of what passes for news is strictly opinion. Newspapers are no longer the main source of information in our nation - or in our world - and our computers see what blogs and news feeds decide to give us. They look at our searches and downloads and feed us more of the same.

What bleeds still leads in the papers and on cable, but angry people are also really popular. And, if you agree with what they are angry about, you get more and more of it. The commentators who get the most views (and make the most money) are the ones who their audience - read that as “you” - identify with, and that makes their opinion the real story.

But keeping myself out of the story is what I believed when I first started as a reporter, and I still mostly believe it. People should get fair, honest information and make up their own minds about it. Did they always agree with my stories? Of course not. Did they even read the entire story? Certainly not all of them.

But enough of that. Back to me. You want to know how I  - a proud liberal former reporter living in a rather conservative Republican county - get along with my friends and neighbors, who have a different opinion about most things.

Well, mostly I do what everyone else does in this situation. I ignore it and hope things will someday get better. I call it taking the long view - the Republican Party is suffering from dry rot, has given up most of its principles in a deal with the Devil to gain power, and its long-term future resembles a great, growing mass of lemmings headed toward a cliff.

                                           First Things First

Why am I writing this? It’s tempting to do, of course. And since no one is paying me, I can write whatever I want. But, the biggest reason is my older daughter, who pointed out that it was long past time for me to put something of myself in my blog.

She turned out to be a better writer than me, is smarter than me in a lot of ways, and has a really good eye for social justice and order. And, she pointed out that not writing about myself violates one of the prime rules of writing - write about what  you know. Besides, in some way, it brings this blog back in balance a bit. Too much objectivity and not enough personal reflection kind of distorts it.

All the nerds who really appreciated my recent article on how the government calculates economic growth and what it means please stand up. Going  to the bathroom right now does not count. That was one of my recent blogs. And probably one of the least popular. Nothing about myself in it, and it probably bored a lot of people.

So, let me talk a bit about me, and my opinions. Which may, in its own way, turn out to be just as boring. Consider yourself warned.

                             Short Answer Now, Longer Answers Later

 You might think I am distressed and angry about the way our nation and state and county and town are going. Also our school district, our park districts, the Suffolk County Water Authority and the volunteer fire department. And the library, the reconstruction of the roads around my town, and a lot of other things.

I am not, not really. It’s more a kind of resignation, that things will get keep getting bad until they get better.  And I see signs that the change has already started.

Some perspective. I am old enough to be an original Trekie, and I believe in the wisdom of Mr. Spock. I think it should apply to our government, and that our current government has turned it on its head. What wisdom, you ask? - The good of the many outweighs the good of the few. Or the one. Certainly the American Revolution was not fought to make the few rich people in our nation richer.

Now there is a caveat - if you have to make someone suffer for the good of all - like the people living near a new parking garage or town dump site - you have to try and do something to make up for the damage. Like fund better schools for the distressed community. Build some parks. Provide public transportation. Things like that.

You want to let companies sell cut-rate health insurance for people who can’t afford anything else - well get ready to build a lot of new health clinics and pour lots more money into hospitals that will have to treat people without proper coverage. Things like that.

                                        Somewhat Longer Answer.

You might think I fight with my neighbors who put up Republican lawn signs and don’t really think very much about what it means.  Just supporting their team with it’s hard-edged realism. Our tax dollars are going to the moochers. You know, the people who set up off-shore bank accounts and increase low-interest loans to automate and reduce jobs. 

Well, I just don’t fight with them. I have learned, many times over, that you can almost never change anyone’s mind once an opinion has settled in and grown roots. There are lots of Republicans who proudly say they never voted for a Democrat in their life, and there are lots of Democrats who proudly say they never voted for a Republican in their life.

Let’s be fair. Both are like those lemmings, just waiting to be led off a cliff. Hoo-ray for the undecideds, those independents who never seem to make up their minds until a week or two before an election. That’s another belief that I have turned on its head.

No, I don’t fight with people who will just dig in their heels if you ask them why they believe what they believe. Smart ones come up with lots of reasons - most of them half-truths and some of them just wrong - and show a surprising degree of creativity in justifying how they feel. Sometimes, they make things up, but mostly they just repeat things other people have made up. I call it the “talk radio effect.” I would tweet that sometime, if I believed in twitter.

Don’t just trust me on this. Look it up yourself. Lots of studies have been done on opinions, and people just don’t retain facts that contradict what they believe. 

Don’t believe in climate change? Well, you will soon spout lots of views from people who have questioned one thing or another about climate change, or who just say there isn’t enough information yet. Or, that it is just nature taking its course. All talking points of climate deniers, or people who own a lot of stock in traditional energy companies.

So, I just don’t argue. It doesn’t get me anywhere. Besides, you can’t spend your life - or even a good part of it - thinking snarky thoughts about people who disagree with you. Or   who won’t take the time - or don’t have the ability - to really analyze what they hear. Quick, raise your hand if you have read an issue of Scientific American in the past year. Anybody. Either side.

                                        Let The Deep Dive Begin

I don’t believe in absolute moral purity either. I do believe that people who do evil are evil - especially when they are in power - but I also know that good people can do bad things and that bad people can do good things. So, I don’t put people who disagree with me in the deplorable basket. But, I do despise anyone who supports the abomination of our detaining children and separating them from their parents. 

Here’s a good test to see if you have fallen off the objectivity wagon. If you can’t actually articulate what the person you disagree with believes - and they may not be able to clearly state it themselves - then you are a little lacking in understanding.

Just look at any two people arguing over the kneeling protests by football players. Bet you that neither of them could sit down and write a paper - and it must be at least 1,000 words - expressing why they feel the way they do. I could, but you won’t find me arguing it. One quick comment, maybe two, and that is enough to show if I am talking to someone who can change their opinion. Usually, it is futile.

Want to waste an hour of your life? Try to change the mind of someone who has overlooked the fact that ever since we started filling the air with fumes from coal fires - we are talking the Industrial Revolution here - and since the world’s population started exploding, man’s effect on the climate has been getting bigger and bigger.

Forests became fields. Fields became orderly farms, and the methane from millions of cows - which were not needed when there were a few less billion people to feed - created their own environmental problems.

Or, just look at the seashore. Ask some old-timer how big the beach was when they were a kid. Or just look at the Montauk lighthouse, which was about 300 feet from the edge of a cliff when it was built in 1796 - our new nation’s first public works project - and is now only about 100 feet from the ocean, with raging debates going on about how to keep it from eventually falling into the sea.

Easy to overlook, right?

                            Just A Few More Pages, If You Want To Read Them

Now, one of my great pleasures in life is playing games. Mostly board games and games with little toy figures, mostly lovingly-painted metal miniatures. I play Candy Land with my grandchildren, and played a whole lot of games with my kids growing up. When I go visit some friends in New Jersey, I bring a game or two to play with their grandchildren.

I started playing war games decades ago. To explain briefly, a good war game shows what happened in a battle, and also shows what might have happened. The games got better over the years - more accurate, more analytical, better production values - and my gaming expanded. Now I play games where you win by building cities, or gathering resources, or fighting space battles with decks of cards. I have one where you get points for healing a sick pig.

My metal miniature games go everywhere, from recreating a Revolutionary War battle to naval combat in World War II. Dungeons and Dragons is still popular too.

A few weeks ago I was crawling through the sewers of Paris trying to discover why it was backing up. Giant ants and monsters, naturally. Our party had dynamite to blow up the obstruction, but the tunnel was dark and someone had to hold a torch so the guy with the dynamite knew where to put it.

Boom. A heroic death.

The point is that I play with people who don’t share my opinions, on politics or a whole range of other things. But our little group does all share a common bond - we all love gaming.  And, it can be hard to find a group of gamers to meet every Wednesday or Friday night.

So, the Trump supporters don’t talk about Trump. The Trump haters don’t talk about him either. And, our games go on. Each side agrees to put politics to the side for a couple of hours. It mostly works. See how easy it is to get along with people.

                                 Why Reporters See Things Differently

Of course I have opinions on a lot of things. But, I also have a lot of practice in doing something most other people don’t. You  can’t write an objective story unless you see both sides of an issue - or three or four sides, if needed - and you can’t see those sides unless you can actually understand what both sides are saying.

It may  be why I rarely act on a knee-jerk reaction, unless I am yelling at something on a TV screen. Usually, things in real life are too complicated to tweet about.

You can’t be a good reporter if you start out believing one side is good and the other is bad.  You can quote people saying one side is mistaken, or what they propose will create real problems for a lot of people. But, you also try to prove that by finding facts, not by spouting opinions. And you have to give the people you may not agree with the same chance to explain things.

That, sadly, is not happening in our political discourse. Tell a Trump supporter that what they believe was crafted by the Russians, and he or she will laugh in your face and say they never even met a Russian.

Tell a Democrat that the party rigged the election in a lot of ways to stop Bernie Sanders, and they will tell you that is all a lie. Or a really big mistake. They will also insist Hillary only lost because the other side cheated, not because she ran a lousy campaign. 

See, our nation has achieved equality at last.

My own opinion - just wait for it - is that both the Republican and the Democratic parties are suffering from a political hardening of the arteries. Neither party has any vision to offer our nation to deal with its big problems. Republicans have the added problem of squandering the enormous political power and the luck which gave them total control of our government by pushing tax cuts that don’t help the working class and abandoning most of their core ideas - picking winners and losers in our supposed free market economy, watching the federal deficit grow faster than under the Democrats and giving up all claim that the President should be a moral leader.

The Democrats, on the other hand, have wasted nearly two years in trying to figure out what they stand for in a post-Obama era, and having absolutely no idea on what to spend their political capital on if and when when they get back into power again.

                                          Wrapping It All Up

So, I tend to keep my opinion to myself - this blog is a great safety valve - but I think I also have a kind of clarity from all those years of trying to see every side of a problem. By training and instinct, I go deeper into things. It makes you a cynic, and it explains why people in my profession tend to be called know-it-alls.

Here’s an example. An adorable little girl, eight or nine years old, blonde with a pony tail, is riding her bike in the street and is hit by a car. Broken arm. Crying mother. Complaints about speeding on her quiet residential street. OK, not really a big story. It happens a lot.

(There are between 40,000 and 50,000 people hurt in bicycle accidents in our nation every year, and two people die in bike accidents every day).

Now let’s say the mother has a friend who knows how to organize. They protest at the accident site demanding a stop sign be put up. They keep doing it until it gets on cable television or in their local newspaper. Some teenagers post a video. And, eventually, they go to town hall to demand action.

So, what is a heartless reporter to do. Nice picture of the kid with her arm in a cast, and her younger sister holding a teddy bear.

Do you point out that these good people really want four other stop signs as well, to slow traffic on their entire block. Or that doing it will simply shift all that traffic to some other local street? Or that there is a state law that says stop signs are only justified when there is enough traffic, and are supposed to stop traffic coming from a quiet street before it enters a busier road.

Should you call a traffic expert who will tell you that the more stop signs there are, the more likely some drivers will just speed through them, which will actually increase accidents? Should you ask if other neighborhoods with worse traffic problems should be first in line to get a stop sign? Should you even point out that you just don’t put a stop sign up - you need a traffic engineer’s study first. Should you ask about the cost?

Well, there is an answer to that one, too. “If it saves the life of just one child, then it’s worth it!” In which case, shouldn’t there be a stop sign on every street corner in the county? Or are some lives worth more than others?

Or would all that money be better spent saving lives some other way, such as reducing one of our worst national disgraces, am infant mortality rate just over six deaths for every 1,000 births. It’s the highest rate of any of the 27 wealthiest in the world (Finland and Japan are the lowest, at 2.3). If you really want to make a difference, spend a good chunk of that stop sign money for pre-natal care in states like Alabama (8.7 deaths per 1,000 births) or Mississippi. That’s the worst state, with 9.6 deaths per 1,000 births, which puts it between Botswana and Bahrain.

See why I tend to keep my opinions to myself? They just take too long to explain.