Another Day, Another Lie

So, here is how my life has been going lately. It seems like almost everyone and almost everything is lying to me. It’s hard to get used to, but once you do, it’s easy to ignore the big liar in the White House and all the little liars around him.

Sound paranoid? Well, it all started a few days ago when my old, out-of-date, no longer supported Safari search engine vanished from my computer desktop.

Now my computer is a little old - five years in computer terms is about 80 years in human years - but I was happy with it. All the sites I wanted to go to were bookmarked, I could search for a lot of things without annoying pop-up ads, and - most important to this blog - all I had to do was click on “blog” and up it came.

Then, one morning, it was gone.

                                                      So, What To Do?

I tried three other search engines, and none of them would let me connect to my own blog. One came close, but asked me for a password I had long forgotten. No problem, it offered to text a code to  me, but I needed another password for that.

Still no problem, it would send the access code to my cell phone. But the number hint it gave - 13 were the last numbers on the phone, the hint said - did not match my cell phone, our land line,  my wife’s cell, my tech-savvy daughters cells or any other familiar number.

So, I gave up pretending to be a Luddite, dug into the file that stored all the apps on my computer, and simply lifted Safari to the appropriate dock. Presto. The lie that it was gone was, well, gone.

So, then I heard about Paul Manafort being charged by the FBI with lying and breaking his plea agreement. Then I heard from the President that we used a “very mild” form of tear gas to protect our troops from babies in diapers on the Mexican border - turns out the troops only have one kind of tear gas, the regular kind - and then my cell phone rang.

Now I hate unsolicited advertising when I am called at home. I like it even less when I am driving and my phone is on speaker. And a recorded voice told me not to hang up, that it was not an ad, and that I qualified to get a $100 credit card, apparently just for being me.

So I hung up. Didn’t get into a traffic accident. Didn’t get a ticket. And did get another call, telling me how much I could save on my insurance.

And I remembered some politician in Washington telling me that the government does not have the power to regulate those kinds of calls, and the wireless networks telling me they can’t legally block those calls, and some other politician telling me I have to be a smarter shopper, ignoring the fact that phone contracts have shelf lives a lot longer than bananas or bottles of milk in the refrigerator.  

                            And Just Who Is Keeping Those Calls Coming?                                

And, hey, forget about all those contributions from the tech sector that go to the politicians who could change the rules and eliminate those nuisance calls almost overnight, but somehow don’t get around to it.

Then I heard that auto factories around the country are going to close and cost tens of thousands of jobs, and that the national debt is growing faster than ever before, and that those barefoot immigrants are headed to Mississippi to vote illegally for Democrats. Trump and Fox News said those things were betrayals, and that it was all the fault of the Federal Reserve Chairman, who Trump had appointed before finding out just how bad he was.

But, good news, the immigrants have no money and can’t walk that fast. What they should do, the President said, is just wait and come into the country legally. Do it the right way. Lots of people are saying that.

Then some news reporter said the government was processing a hundred amnesty applications a week, and that there were 5,000 people waiting to come into the United States from that border hot spot. So, I did the math in my head, and if nobody else joins the crowd, it will take almost a year for them all to get in, assuming that they all qualify.

So, who will feed them and house them and cloth them and take care of their medical needs? After all, many fled from the terror of their home country with just the clothes on their backs.

Well, let’s see? Could it be Mexico? I wonder why that nation isn’t cooperating with our border patrols as well as it could.

But, it is. Donald Trump told me so. That was a few days after Mitch McConnell told me that our Congress should work to be more bipartisan next year, reaching across the aisle and cooperating. That was right after he said there was still time to approve a few more Republican judges before Congress adjourns.

See how easy it is to live with liars?

Go Ohio!

This will be about an old law, the law of unintended consequences. But, first, we have to talk about a new law, and Ohio - that wonderful and creative state - looks like it is about to jump head-first into the great unknown future. And take us all with it.

Yes, we’re talking about Roe v. Wade.

Now Roe v. Wade has been around for a long time, and it was never as simple as most people today see it. We all know that the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 1973 that a woman had the right to have an abortion without the interference of the government - that it was a matter of privacy, and that keeping the government out of a woman’ s decision with her doctor was protected by the Constitution of the United States.

                                                   But what, exactly, is it?

It led to a frenzy of laws in different places, with advocates claiming all sorts of things. THe ACLU’s Sexual Privacy Project said it also defended the rights of gays and lesbians, women living with boyfriends, adult porn stars, sex workers and people arrested for cross-dressing in public. And several states began a campaign that has lasted more than 40 years, saying that even though abortion may well be legal, they could make it difficult to get by putting restrictions on where abortions could be done, on the age of the fetus being aborted, on the required credentials and hospital affiliation of the doctor performing it. Things like that. You know, make it so expensive that only really rich women could get one.

Well now we have Ohio, and its newly proposed law - passed by the Ohio House of Representatives - that would make it a felony to perform an abortion after a fetal heartbeat is detected. With modern ultrasound equipment that can be done about six weeks after conception, before most woman even know they are pregnant.

It’s similar to a bill passed two years ago in Ohio and vetoed by Gov. John Kasich, who said it was illegal under Roe v. Wade. 

Now the Ohio Senate gets to vote on it again, and Republican Christina Hagan, one of HB 258’s sponsors, said Roe v. Wade was exactly the point. She believes that high court decision was wrong, and her bill will lead to a friendlier Supreme Court overturning the landmark federal decision.

Oh, and forget about another veto. Republican Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine has already indicated he would sign a heartbeat bill after he takes office in January.

                                                     Why Should We Care?

When abortion opponents started attacking Roe v. Wade all those long years ago, they focused on how wrong abortion was, not about the right to privacy. And it worked well - ask anyone you know what Roe v. Wade is about and almost everyone will say abortion.  Some may say abortion, duh. Very few will say the right to privacy.

Now where could that take us as a nation? Well, let’s say you have a gun in your house and the government thinks you are a criminal, or you commit domestic violence, or you drink a lot. Why, their right to protect lives trumps your right to privacy, and the cops can come in with a no-knock warrant. After all, you have a gun.

Or let’s say you worship God in a way that is not popular with today’s religious conservatives. Not even Cristian, or not even the right sect. Or, maybe not really worshiping from their bible. Who knows what you may be doing behind closed doors?

Well, the government should know. After all, you have no right to privacy.

Here’s a better one. Let’s say that sometime soon a liberal Democratic President is elected and a liberal Democratic Congress is elected, and you have contributed money to Republicans. To overthrow the government, obviously. Want to donate without anyone knowing it? Well, forget that. You have no right to privacy.

But those are big things. What about something closer? You know, that neighbor down the street who is doing something suspicious. Quick, call 911. 

Oh, wait,  you can’t get on the phone. Your wife is busy calling police to report her cheating husband. Don’t worry, you will be able to clear your name in court, but if you don’t make bail, you will be in jail a long, long time. The docket is kind of crowded.

It's Creepy

So, there were our soldiers - volunteers trained for combat who had already risked their lives for our nation - standing in the hot sun at the border between Texas and Mexico, being told by Defense Secretary James Mattis that what they are doing was “great training.”

Now soldiers are training all the time, polishing up their existing skills and learning new ones. And, it’s important. In a war, you can have only seconds to do something right or people will die. And, you don’t know ahead of time what that may be.

It takes you a few extra minutes to load a truck, someone 80 miles away may not get the ammunition they need. Yes, it happens.

But wait. Let me pull back a minute. Why am I looking at this relatively obscure event at a time our nation has so many big things happening it’s hard to focus on any of them? 

Well, it’s always a good idea to take a few minutes to look back on things. We’ll get back to that later.

For the moment, let’s just look at the troops who Secretary Mattis and Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen (it’s a little early to call her outgoing secretary. The President’s wife isn’t mad at her yet) were talking to at their camp in the unrelenting sun.

The troops are there to protect us from a caravan of immigrants, the President told them. And the caravan is real. At least, Fox News told me that. And showed me pictures.

                                     But Don'tAlways  Believe Your Own Eyes

What? You don’t watch Fox News? Well, they showed pictures of migrants climbing over a wall, although it wasn’t clear when the clip was filmed or where the climbing was taking place. Or even why the patriotic Fox News cameraman didn’t just throw his camera to the ground and make a citizen’s arrest.

But the giggling, head-nodding commentators said this was the beginning of the caravan coming to the United States. Nine buses, they said. A very precise-sounding number of 357 migrants on them, they said. But, N=not enough time to say where their number came from.

Anyway Fox said they had arrived in Tijuana by the hundreds (now watch it shrink) and that several hundred got off the buses and made their way to shelters to get food. And, they said, dozens were seen scaling the border fence, and - finally - for the Fox audience members who aren’t good with geography, we learned that border patrol agents were waiting for them. Near San Diego. Which is in California, not Texas.

So, why were those two high-level government officials in Texas talking to the troops? Well, that’s where more than 5,000 of them are now stationed. They are learning to work together to string barbed wire, and move the barbed wire to where it was needed. And, apparently to stand around, but not to arrest anyone because that is illegal. No, unless martial law has been declared, our Army and Navy and even the Marine Corps can not be used for civil law enforcement. It’s in the Constitution.

Now critics have called the deployment a stunt. And doubling down, the president wants to increase the troop level to between 10,000 and 15,000.

What’s interesting is the frank exchange between some of the troops and Secretary Mattis, a former Marine Corps general. He suggested they ignore the harping criticism being reported in the news and just concentrate on their job and their orders from their officers and non-coms.  (non-commissioned officers, for those who were never in the service).

He assured them that the United States has never used its armed forces for a political whim. The military, he said “doesn’t do stunts.” He said their mission was legal and necessary.

But when one of the soldiers asked him just what their mission was, he said that was still being decided.

                                                     A Personal Observation

Which gets me to half the point of this blog, bringing up an old personal memory. Something that happened to me a long time ago.

I was finishing up my military service with a Long Island military police unit, and we had all been called up on the orders of President Richard Nixon because postal workers had gone out on strike. Critics at the time said the call-up of Army Reserve units was a publicity stunt, but the White House said it was necessary. 

When you are wearing a green uniform, you do what you are told. So, there I was, driving a duce and a half (a two and a half ton truck) filled with my fellow MP’s down the Long Island Expressway, unloaded sidearm and baton at the ready. We got to Manhattan, parked at a no parking zone near a really big post office, and the guys in the back got out. I stayed with the truck, with my assistant driver for company.

And most of us reflected on our orders. “Don’t touch anything.” At the end of the tour, they got back in the truck and I drove back to our battalion headquarters. It was a job well done. Not a single envelope was touched, as far as I know.

My own opinion is that it was not really necessary training. And, while bad things happened to President Nixon, it was likely not caused by our activation. I did get an extra two weeks of active duty, and was paid the standard daily rate. Which, of course, was subtracted from my regular pay by my employer.

A victory all around.

                                           And Now, The Heart Of The Matter

Now the other half of my point.

There are about 5,200 troops now on the border. And, they will all have  something to do. You don’t just sit around on your hands in an army on deployment.

But, there is something that your officers, and their officers, and the officers above them do. We’ve done it before, and will likely do it again. Just two words, old familiar words that lead to a whole lot of anguish.

It’s called mission creep. That’s the military equivalent of “when you’re up to your neck in alligators, it’s easy to forget your job was to drain the swamp.” It means that whatever you do, something will come along that has to be done as well.

You are camped out on flat ground? Well, wouldn’t you be more secure if there was a lookout or two on that nearby hill? And if the lookouts on the hill need to be supported, wouldn’t it be better to build a road? And shouldn’t some scouts go out to see what is happening past the lookout station’s line of sight?

And don’t we need to build some garages for our trucks?

Well, you get the picture. Or, you don’t. If you don’t, here are some more words. Vietnam. Afghanistan. Korea. You know, places where our troops serve, go home, and then go back again.

I don’t think we really want to add Arizona and Texas and California to that list.

So, Where Are We?

I know it’s hard to tell, even a week after the election. So many things are happening. So many things are still undecided. So many important votes have to be counted, or re-counted, or not counted at all.

Then there is the question of what will happen in January, after the new Congress is sworn in. And what will happen before January, while the old Congress is still in power. And who will be running the Justice Department and whether there will be any more Supreme Court nominees.

And the border wall, and the caravan, and all those troops stringing barbed wire across miles of empty desert, and told to shoot at kids throwing rocks by the President and told not to shoot at all by their non-coms.

And mass shootings, and climate change, and the mounting cost of natural disasters.

Hey, do we really need another Kent State to distract us? Oh, yes, this may be a generational thing. If you don’t know what happened at Kent State because you are too young, I’ll give you a hint. Some National Guard troops assigned to keep order at a college where kids were demonstrating had rocks thrown at them and thought they were in danger. So they shot, and killed some of the protesters.

That was in 1970. Four students were killed and nine more were wounded. It’s now the fourth thing you find when you do a Google search for “Kent State.” You should look it up as a reminder of the reality behind Trump’s words.

Our President is old enough to remember, but maybe he was doing a deal that day and wasn’t paying attention. That day, or the next day, or the day after that.

Anyway, with all those big things happening - and a lot more big shadows slowly filling out and becoming reality - what are the take-aways from the election? In short, where are we?

Well, I can’t tell you. I don’t know what will happen over the next few months any more than you do. But, what I can do is highlight some of the things that aren’t being talked about much in the media or by the candidates, and which may turn out to be really, really important.

                                                    But where to start?

Well, I like numbers and demographics and number crunching (it’s a learned habit), so let’s start by looking at the vote. More people voted last week than in any other off-year election, but - since our nation has been growing for three centuries - it doesn’t really mean that much.

There are always more people in the voting pool. What really matters is the percentage of voters who took the trouble to cast a ballot that counts.

We had about 113 million people vote - more or less - and that came to 48 or 49 percent of the eligible voters. That’s right, more than half of us didn’t go to the polls or even cast an absentee ballot.

It was a pretty high number for an off-year election. It sure beats recent highs like the 36.8 percent vote in 2014 and the 41 percent vote in 2010. Yep, for all the fire and fury, as a nation a lot of us just don’t care. It kind of explains why politicians sometimes ignore protesters.

Now you can do a lot of deep digging on this, looking for voter suppression or lack of interest on the part of some minority groups, the difficulty the elderly and the handicapped have in getting to the polls or getting a mail-in  ballot, or the willful efforts of some people - including local officials - to keep other people from voting.

There are so many arguments that people of every political stripe can argue why the low turnout matches their prejudices. Here’s one take-away - the people who benefit from low voter turnout tend to be the ones already in office or their supporters. After all, they are the people making the rules that determine how we vote.

Now let’s look at the myth of which party will control the Senate and the House of Representatives next year. A lot of people thought they knew when the election results came in. Democrats have the House and Republicans kept the Senate.

Well, cracks are already starting to show. We still don’t know for sure who won a couple of key Senate races. It might even make sense for Florida to hold two elections, one in the Summer which could be re-counted and argued about for months - a kind of new tourist attraction, especially for people who watch court TV shows. Then they could hold another one in November, when all the problems have been corrected.

                                         Now, What Is It All About?

We just have to look at the big picture. A lot of what will be happening over the next few months is just a bridge to 2020, and those forces - remember the shadows taking for I talked about - are really interesting.

Again, some facts. Off-year voters tend to be older, whiter and more conservative than the voters who come out in Presidential race years. Not an opinion, just a fact. Look it up yourself, or ask any politician or anyone who sits behind a desk at the polling place and hands you a ballot.

So, the voters in two years will likely trend younger, include more minorities and be a little more liberal than the ones who voted last week. Now everyone in the House runs for re-election every two years. The Senate is different. It has six-year terms, so only a third of the members are ever on the ballot at the same time.

Last week, about two-thirds of the Senators whose terms had expired were Democrats, and the vote was set up for Democrats to lose some seats. A rigged election if I ever saw one. in two years, the Senators running for re-election will break the other way, with two-thirds of them being Republicans. Guess what that means!

Now, lets take a look at what the Democrats and Republicans really won on Election Day.

The Democratic side is easy. We just don’t know. They haven’t held power in the House since 2009, and it’s still not clear what their agenda will be or how it will play out. Should be interesting.

The Republicans have gotten rid of some of their veterans and have a batch of fresh new faces who - in the election - stood firmly behind Donald Trump. Just imagine what happens when they find the members of that other branch of government don’t do what they want.

                                                          The Best Part

A more interesting question - and not many people are asking it right now - is could there be a complete control of our government in 2020,  just like the Republicans hold right now?

Well, it’s not at all unusual. In the last 100 years, the Democrats held the White House and both houses of Congress for 35 years, and the Republicans had them all for 16 years. It kind of puts things in perspective.

And is anyone sure what the new crop of Senators and House members will be like? Will Mitt Romney turn out to be a Trump yes man? Fat chance of that. Will a Senator who saw their reliable red state turn blue this year stand firmly behind the President’s demand to shut down our government if his border wall is not funded? Or what will they say when someone asks them what is happening to those immigrant children taken from their parents and still held in detention camps? Sooner or later, someone will notice.

Then there’s the question of what will happen when the President submits another budget with a trillion dollar deficit, or one that cuts the debt by cutting Medicaid and Congress has to vote on it?

Just like the current crop of Democrats, I don’t want to even talk about indictments until there is actually a Democratic majority seated in the House of Representatives. But, I will bet a cup of coffee and a donut that some Republican Senator from a state that is no longer solidly Republican may bring up the topic in the next month or two.

You know, one of those people who will be facing re-election in two years and who saw the Trump wave break against their party in his state.

Hey, when there is a revolution brewing, it is a lot better to be ahead of the crowd and leading it than being chased by them.