About That Tax Plan….

So, the President’s new tax code outline is out, and it promises something for everybody.

As I see it, it promises a lot more money for corporations and for the rich, and a higher tax rate for people whose income comes from a paycheck.

Didn’t he say that? I guess I missed it.

It is a fine example of his campaign style, which is to promise things without actually using any nouns.

For instance, here are some of the things he didn’t mention. The biggest thing is, well, “income.” There is nothing in his proposal - and nothing that anyone said at any press conference - that says just what income is.

We all know that if you work, you are taxed on your income. But what happens when you sell your shopping mall to someone who wants to knock it down to build an office complex? Well, you make something, but how much? What if the buyer pays you over 10 years? What about depreciation? And what about just trading that shopping center for some other property the new builder owns. Then no money changes hands at all - presto no income! But you now own something that brings in a lot more money now, and the corporation that bought your shopping center isn’t getting any money at all until it starts renting out units.

That’s called a “like-kind” swap. It’s done all the time. And to get really sticky, let’s say the  new builder doesn’t rent out units at all, but gets stock in the company that is buying the office space. How do we value that?

Well as they say, the devil is in the details, and we didn’t hear any of those details in the President’s proposal.

Well, we did hear one. Get rid of the Death Tax.

Oh, how unfair to have to pay a tax just to die!

But wait, it’s not really a tax on dying. It’s actually a tax on the estate you leave to others. And if you give all your wealth to a charity, they won’t pay anything at all.

So, how does it actually work? Well, if you leave someone up to $10,000, they will pay a tax of absolutely nothing, Leave them $20,000, and they will pay $1,800. Top rate is 40 percent, or $345,000 if you leave someone $1 million.

But, good news for all. There is an exemption. You know, the kind of thing that helps those poor farmers who inherit their parents' farm but have to sell it to pay the death taxes? Didn’t anyone mention that?

Well, the one-time estate exemption is currently $5.45 million. There are lots of calculations you have to make to get those millions in your pocket, but - bottom line - the first $2.8 million of the death - pardon me, the estate - is absolutely, completely, totally death tax free. Wonder how many people you know will be inheriting $2.8 million? And will any of them hire an accountant?

Now let’s look at the other fact that slipped out. Cut the brackets!

The President’s wise advisors want to cut the number of current tax brackets from seven to just three. Oh, how simple. We will have to look at a smaller chart to figure out what our tax rate is. And he promises to double our standard deduction. Sounds good, so far.

Now there are seven tax brackets, from 10 percent to 39.6 percent. He would change that from 10 to 35 percent.

But what he didn’t say is when those rates would kick in. Right now there is an IRS chart showing the seven brackets, but there are 14 income levels - it’s different for single filers and married people - and there are standard deductions. There’s also a little thing called the Pease limitation, which is what makes a lot of rich people hire those tax lawyers.

Most people don’t worry about it, because it only kicks in for single people earning at least $261,500 and married folks bringing in $313,800.

So what bugs me about this all so far? Well, for one, I would lose the deductions I take for living in New York. I could no longer deduct my state tax or my county tax or my town tax. Or my school taxes or the library tax or any other tax. That big doubling of the standard deduction Trump offers will get eaten up long before it reaches my pocket.

Oh, and did I mention that no one will be deducting medical expenses any more. That’s a big deal, especially since the President still wants to get rid of our health insurance.

Now, I think it’s fair to ask how the Trump family would fair under his tax proposal. You know, how much would the kids get when he dies?

Well, for that question his people gave one clear, simple answer.

None of your business.

I'm Starting To Get It

It was raining the other day, and I was driving home from a short trip when, suddenly, I got it. A really big IT. 

It was enough to let me understand a lot of things, and to realize why Trump supporters have won so much so quickly. And, don’t deny it, they have.

It also explains why so few of them are disappointed in The Donald, and why there have been - let’s face it - so few problems in his administration so far that have generated a bipartisan revolt.

And, knowing it will give old-fashioned liberals a lot of...well, something. Not power. Not clout. Not influence. But, it will give them knowledge, and we all know knowledge is power. If you use it in the right way.

So, what is IT?  Well, everyone knows it already. To paraphrase Sherlock Holmes, everyone sees things that are right in front of them,  but many do not recognize what they are seeing.

Remember all the people who thought Trump would lose. Them.

Now for the big reveal. Donald Trump rarely means what he says. Just think about it. Except for lusting after women who are not his wife, Donald Trump doesn’t really mean what he promises. He won’t start building a wall on the border. He won’t stop foreign trade or try to impose a broad tariff on imports. He will not send tens of thousands of additional troops into a hot war in Korea or in the Middle East or anywhere else that we are not dragged into by a sneak attack on the United States.

It’s all just the opening bid in a negotiation. A negotiation with Congress. A negotiation with the Supreme Court. A negotiation with the American public.

And, if you reject the opening bid, he just folds like a cheap camera, to use a phrase so old that it dates back to a time when cameras actually folded up to be put away.

That’s why so few Trump supporters are disappointed in his actions so far. They never believed the things he promised in the first place.

When he says he will bring back coal mining jobs, they know he can’t do it. But, they hear someone paying attention to them, and offering hope that something will be done to help them. I know the Democrats talked a bit about bringing alternate energy and high-tech manufacturing jobs to West Virginia and Kentucky, but they certainly didn’t say it clearly and they didn’t say it anywhere loud enough for most people in those states to hear it.

When he talks about building a huge wall and having Mexico pay for it, they know he is just saying border security will be beefed up, and saying it in a way that is pure genius. No one has to worry about the details of his plan, because everyone - at least his supporters - know that’s not the plan he really wants.

It’s why he doesn’t expect many problems with his plan to cut taxes for the rich. He just says he will cut taxes for everybody, and everybody knows he can’t do that, but what most Trump supporters hear that he will be making an effort to cut their taxes. A few, the really rich ones, hear “We’ll take care of you first, and sweat the rest of it later.”

The new tax plan - a sneak peek

It’s coming. It’s coming on Wednesday. And I know that it will be big, really big.

That’s because - through several special secret sources and one really big secret sauce - I have found out the gist, the heart, the beating substance of President Donald Trump’s carefully prepared and still secret tax plan.

And, unlike him, I am willing to share it. Right now.

Let’s cut taxes. Let’s cut taxes for everybody, and - since the richer you are, the more taxes you pay - let’s give rich people the biggest tax cuts. It’s only fair.

Did you expect more?

Well, The Donald did say that his tax plan would actually be a map, a guidepost, an outline. That’s the advantage of running things. You paint the big picture, and all the little people who work for you provide the mundane details.

What, you say? What about the impact on our deficit? Well, there will be none. Lowering taxes big time will kick our economy into high gear, really high gear. Certainly bigger than the hundreds of thousands of jobs created each month by that last president. You know, O-something.

Now there are lots of details in the current tax code. But, really, who needs them? When was the last time any of the people who voted for Trump had to sweat out the detail of carried adjusted gross income? Heck, we’ll even get rid of the alternate minimum tax. Why fill out a tax form when you have already filled out a tax form.

Simplify, cut. And then cut some more, and just watch the nation’s revenue rise. And, if we don’t generate enough money to pay our bills through growth, then we can just slap a big tax on imports. Just think, corporations won’t have to raise the pay of their workers. Big department stores will come back as private shopping clubs - and without all those tacky departments for the hoi polloi. Just think, all those racks of clothing replaced by just a few gold ones, all carrying samples of the Ivanka brand.

Yes, as soon as those obedient Republicans in the House of Representatives get back from vacation and fill out a new tax code - and let us note they will get no help from Hillary-loving Democrats - then all our nation’s financial worries will be over.

And, think, in the unlikely event there actually is a federal deficit because of some unforseen emergency, then we can always increase the Border Adjustment Tax. 

I can hear it now. Who will pay for the deficit? Mexico!

Oh, Where Did He Go?

I’m not sure just how it happened, or even exactly when it happened, but sometime in the last week or so I lost Donald Trump.

Oh, I think I saw his face a couple of times on television, and I vaguely remember him saying something was really, really good or horrible and awful. But I can’t tell you what the good thing was or what the bad thing was.

I remember a Naval carrier task force sailing in two directions at once, a move designed to fool anyone who doesn’t have access to satellite images - the kind that lets the United States know precisely where every ship in its navy is located and where they are all going.

I don’t think he mentioned any shootings or deportations. And I think he said the Democrats badly lost an election - really a kind of primary - in one Congressional district in Georgia.

Now, he said, it’s a battle between Hollywood and Main Street. Or something like that. And, he didn’t really say which side he was on. Maybe he meant Hollywood and Wall Street.

But, enough of those things. The point is that for a week, my world went on its merry way. I saw my grandkids, I played with my dogs and cats, I did some gardening. And, I didn’t even realize just how peaceful it was. I simply enjoyed being surrounded by normal the way someone enjoys sinking into a nice warm tub, or getting comfortable in an overstuffed chair.

I spent a week dealing with the coming change of seasons. And taking out the garbage and the recycling. I even wrote a letter to the editor of a newspaper, pointing out how one very good story in it might have been even better. Made me feel like an educated consumer of news.

Then I walked past a TV screen while I was heating up some leftovers in the microwave, and I saw stern warnings from our Secretary of State about North Korea and what we might do to stop its nuclear ambitions.

And I thought once again of our toy soldier president, who thinks being Commander-in- Chief means you get everything you want. And I had one final thought - my wife has been watching re-runs of M.A.S.H. lately. 

It was a really good show.

The Best of Times, The Worst of Times...

There are some people who will insist that they know what’s best, at least what’s best in some things near and dear to them.

Heck, almost everybody shares a strong opinion on what’s best. Football teams, baseball teams, soccer teams - at least at the start of the season.  Actors just before the Oscars. Horse races. Politicians. Cars.

Know someone who insists their car is the best - be it a Lexus or a Classic Chevy - or who stands loyally behind their morning cereal?

Then there are some people who feel everything they have and everything they use is the best. They will tell you proudly that they have the best refrigerator, go to the best doctor, send their child to the best college.

Or the worst. It’s really the same thing. “He was the worst contractor ever” or, maybe, “I’ll  never eat here again.”

And, as we fall deeper into this kind of idiocy, we get into Trump Territory.

An exaggeration? Well, lets look at some of his recent claims. You can look at any one you want - after all, you could have the best opinion - but I am kind of fixated on his observation that relations between Russia and the United States have never been this bad. The Worst. His words, not mine.

Anyone ever hear of the Cold War? Anyone old enough to remember it? Well, once upon a time - oh, half a century ago - there was a great battle across the whole world, and Russia and the United States were allies against something called the Axis powers.

Then, seemingly overnight, Russia turned around and closed its borders - we called it an Iron Curtain - and America and its allies started competing with Russia and its puppet nation supporters (they called it the Soviet Union) to see who could be more powerful.

Russian scientists could not study in American colleges. Americans couldn’t see traveling Russian ballet troops. At the end of World War II, America was the only nation in the world with an atomic bomb, but after a few years both the United States and the Soviet Union had atomic and hydrogen bombs, and we had B-52 bombers on 15-minute standby at a lot of airfields, and some on endless patrol just outside Soviet airspace, with enough nuclear weapons to turn every major city in Russia into radioactive rubble 10 times over.

They could only destroy eight or ten or maybe twenty of ours. Then, Russia decided to build a missile site in Cuba, just 90 miles off the coast of Florida. Nuclear-tipped missiles  that could strike parts of America in less than 10 minutes.

And John F. Kennedy declared a naval embargo of Cuba, and Russia sent its cargo ships in to test American resolve. For 13 days, the world watched and waited to see if we would all be killed in a massive nuclear war.

Oh, yes, things have never been this bad. Ha. 

If I were Vladimir Putin, I’d ask for my money back. But, probably not much more. After all, we did spend about $60 million sending missiles to blast an airfield in Syria that had been used to attack people with poison gas, but we were nice enough to give all the Russians there a 90 minute warning to get out. And, just in case, we carefully avoided hitting the poison gas stockpile at all.

We certainly didn’t use any of our weapons that would have burned hot enough to destroy any gas that was released, but that’s probably only of interest to military buffs. I’ll save it just in case relations between America and Russia get worse.

You know, like for a whole week.

You Break It, You Buy It

So, the Tomahawk missiles were launched and the Syrian airfield was smashed. We stood up to a dictator and showed what happens when you use poison gas on innocent children. We were strong, and the attack was certainly the right thing to do.

And it contrasted sharply with the weak restraint of President Obama. It showed friend and foe alike that the United States means what it says. What could be wrong with that?

Well, nothing yet. 

But, let me count some of the ways that this particular action, at this particular time, might not have been the best of things to do. And, we will be living with it. There is no way to put those exploded Tomahawks back in their launch tubes.

First,  we have simplified the debate over who is responsible for whatever happens in the Middle East from now on. The businessman in the White House will probably recognize the old saying “you break it, you bought it.” Well, the old restraints and relationships have been broken. What relationships? Just wait a bit for some of our allies to start being attacked by troops or terrorists, and their governments will start to say “we didn’t approve this attack on Syria.”

Second, we have clarified the roll of Congress in approving military action against foreign nations. Their job is to sit back and watch, and maybe vote on it later. Admittedly, we have a long history of Congress sitting back and complaining but not doing anything. but lately there has been some debate over just how much power a President should have to commit our troops to strike elsewhere. Hey, what could be wrong with that? Well, we could start with Korea, or Vietnam or maybe - the endless strife of the Middle East.

Third, we have upset and confused the Russians. Tough on them. But we have also confused and upset a lot of the allies that are actually fighting ISIS on the ground. Anyone want to predict what happens when the Kurds get a really free hand and all the weapons they need? Or the Egyptians or the Saudis, who have a whole new political picture to understand almost overnight?

Fourth, what does Assad do now? A brutal dictator, any brutal dictator, operates on toughness and fear. If he admits to using poison gas and says “sorry,” he will be seen as weak and his own people - at least his own generals - will tear him apart. If he acts tough, and I think he will, he has an army to use and an ally to help, unless Russia wants to open its border to all those unvetted potential terrorist refugees coming over its border. Just when was that terrorist subway bombing in St. Petersburg? Less than a week ago.

Fifth, just how far does our new role as world policeman go? There’s another saying that one person dying is a tragedy, a thousand people dying half way around the world is a story on page nine. But, apparently, not anymore.

So, who is keeping food from getting to refugees in Sudan? What about all those refugees dying as they try to cross the Mediterranean? Or the starvation and lack of health care on Indian reservations in the United States?

Well, Congress is starting to talk about safe zones for Syrian refugees, and using air power. Which will take troops on the ground to go on patrol and to refuel the aircraft and to transport food and fuel.  And Turkey isn’t too happy about the way things are going. And Israel, I think, will have something to say about the situation, which will only upset the Palestinians.

So, while things are still in flux, let me go back to that one simple point. You break it, you bought it.

A-CHOO

I’m a little behind on my blogging, but I have a great excuse. I have a cold.

Now, at this time of year, most of the world gets a cold. But, this is the first time I haven’t slugged out to the office and worked through it, sneezing and coughing. It’s a good thing that few people were around me, and  I could do most of my work on the phone.

So, I have taken my first chance in decades to miss a deadline, although admittedly it was a self-imposed one. I just waited for other things to fill my life, and - surprise - I actually learned something important. Something about politics.

I got the chance to see the world the way other people do, people who do not live and breathe politics, who follow every word of every candidate and who know most of the details about most of the issues.

And, while the world according to politics flirted with nuclear war, horrible war crimes, corruption in high places, conflicting signals on the plans of our President and of the GOP, I listened to all this the same way that real people do, and it explained a lot.

Do you know what I heard inside my cold-fogged head? Blah, blah, blah.

Everybody was saying the same things they said the day before. Democrats. Republicans. Commentators. The only thing that seemed to change was the amount of money paid to women who had sued Bill O’Reilly over alleged sexual harassment and the number of sponsors dropping his show.

And that’s where I learned something. Very little matters until it actually happens. That;s why its so hard for so many people to take global warming seriously. It hasn’t happened in a way that they can recognize.

Many of the people who live on the shore in New York and North Carolina and Florida don’t think of sea level rising as an abstract concept, not when they see some houses falling into the sea and others being moved away from the water.

People who live in tornado alley, and who have been seeing more and bigger storms every year for a decade, are starting to think that hotter days and nights means more energy in the air, and that  means more tornados.

And, some of the people who have always denied that man-made changes can impact the weather are starting to notice that while climate change has been around for centuries, there are a lot more people on the planet now doing a lot more things and putting a heck of a lot more greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere.

Would you believe that, once, Californians didn’t know what smog was?

So, as i am starting to feel better, I am becoming a little more understanding of the human condition, and will doubtless be more tolerant about what people say, even what politicians say.

Yes, it will take a real outrage to set me off again.

Anyone want to bet how long it takes to happen?