I have been reading a lot lately about the upcoming Supreme Court nomination, and the terrible dilemma that Democrats in Congress who represent red states are facing.
I have been hearing the same thing on the cable shows as well. Amazingly, it seems to be the one thing that partisans on both sides agree on - you hear it on Fox News and MSNBC. You hear it on the network news shows, and you read it in magazines and on blogs all across the political spectrum.
It’s amazing how so many smart people can be so wrong. Which, I admit, is an overstatement. It’s just a simple manifestation of a problem that has plagued mankind ever since, well, since we invented arithmetic or medicine. People who know stuff like to use what they know.
Just ask your uncle Ted, who knows every road and intersection within 10 miles of his house,to tell you the best way to get to some obscure restaurant. Then listen to a litany of the best route, with step-by-step directions of how and where to turn to get the best shortcuts, when “It’s about ten miles down Route 183. Turn right at the Marysville police station” would do just fine.
Or ask your neighbor with the good lawn what kind of fertilizer he uses, and listen for an hour while he tells you what to use, when to use it, how much water to sprinkle once you have applied it...well, you get the picture.
Now we have lots of smart people almost agonizing about the problems of some Democratic congressman up for election in a state that voted for Donald Trump. Vote against Trump’s nominee and you will upset all those Republicans who voted for you. Vote for his nominee and you will upset your Democratic supporters. What to do? What to do?
I recommend taking a cold shower. It might splash some reality into your life.
What Am I Talking About
Now, those arguments are - to a really limited degree - valid. There are some voters who truly believe that controlling the Supreme Court is the most important decision they will ever get to make. Not that they actually make it, but they will vote for someone who will vote for a court nominee you like, and then all will be well.
Abortion will be banned. Abortion will be protected. Government regulations will protect us from having the environment polluted and our health ruined. The heavy hand of unnecessary regulations will be lifted. You know how split our nation is.
But, there are some problems here. First of all, most voters don’t really care who is named to the Supreme Court. Want to test that? Ask anyone you are talking to about this sensitive subject to name the sitting members of the Supreme Court. Strangely, the only member of the court a lot of people can name is Clarence Thomas.
Now, let’s assume your man - or woman - gets on the court. Want to predict how they will vote on any particular case next year, or five years from now or even 15 years from now. Here’s a case - your computer’s programming is being changed by an AI unit that you have given access to as part of your 3-D video operating system.
You want to change the whole system, but a lawyer from the Universal Life Foundation - a group formed by techno-wonks and two small, radical fundamentalist churches - argues that sentient life must be preserved, and destroying that system is murder. And, strangely, the case has been kicked up from court to court in a series of badly written lower court decisions.
Go ahead, how will your candidate vote 15 years from now?
Too wild a fantasy? Here’s another that you might like better.
Let’s say I am a Democrat running for re-election in a state that Donald Trump won with two-thirds of the popular vote. If I vote for his nominee, he will probably not campaign against me or raise money for my opponent. Maybe he will even cut a commercial for me, because he is so grateful for my support. Yes, this from a man who has been running around saying “We need more Republicans in Congress to get things done” every chance he gets.
Too wild a fantasy, again.
Back To Reality
So, let’s try a third scenario. Let’s say that the results of the election which gave us President Donald Trump and a landslide Republican Congress won’t necessarily be repeated. No president at the top of the ticket to vote for, and a sitting president who is as unpopular with more than half the country as he is popular with his base. How will that Supreme Court go for you?
Let’s say that there is a generational change coming in Washington, with some of the old guard already deciding not to run again and more of them being challenged in primaries in both parties. How will a vote putting you solidly on the side of President Trump play in those 30-second attack ads that will start running around Labor Day?
Now, tell me again why all these pundits are arguing, endlessly, about the political impact of opposing a Donald Trump Supreme Court nominee in those changeable red states.
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