The Downside of the Upside

Well, it’s almost over, and I doubt that anything I write in the next few weeks will change anyone’s mind about the election.

Still, I want to get a couple of things down, just in case the near-impossible happens and the nation gets stuck with our incumbent for the next four years.

At least I can say “I told you so.” At best, I can make some interesting predictions about the doom that will come to the Republican Party, his evangelical supporters, and a whole batch of red states that will find themselves on their own in really choppy waters.

So, where to start?

I like the evangelicals as a starting place. Now some religious leaders - a lot of them actually - have learned that it’s not a good idea to play politics overtly. To not support only one party.

In New York City, we have a tradition in late October called the Al Smith Dinner, hosted by the Archbishop of New York and named for former Governor Alfred E. Smith, the first Catholic nominated for President by the Democratic Party.

Republicans and Democrats alike support the dinner, which raises funds for Catholic charities. Presidential candidates from both parties have spoken there, so did Bob Hope, Henry Kissinger and Tom Brokaw.

Now, what would happen if the Church is seen as a political player? When the desire for more political power - let’s say imposing a ban on abortions all across the nation - blends with support for a single party?

Which party gets Al Smith?

Our nation’s founders wisely chose not to adopt a national church. They felt all people had the right to worship as they choose. At least the ones who could legally vote.

But what happens if one group’s religious belief becomes our national policy - all with the best of intentions of course. What else gets changed next? And when political power shifts, what things will they be forced to do?

Suppose a lawsuit ends up in the Supreme Court, demanding that since every life is sacred, every child has the right to be fed and clothed and educated in a way that will lead to a good and fulfilling life. Who should be taxed to pay for it. How much would it cost to upgrade school districts in half the states in the nation?

Or suppose a lawsuit demands all public schools hold prayer sessions every morning before class. And a Muslim cleric wants to lead one of them. Or a Rabbi. Or a Buddhist Monk. Might work in some blue states, but how about the old Bible Belt?

That would be unlikely, unless those religious groups contribute to a political party, or a PAC and the people getting the money feel they have to pay their contributors back. That’s how politics works.

Another thought. Not every Church is packed with worshipers every Sunday. C.S. Lewis - one of my favorite Christian theologians -  once wrote about a man sitting in a church and seeing others who he knew cheated in business, were cruel to their family, and had committed other sins.

Then he thought that if he, with all his sins, could pray for forgiveness, God could also hear the prayers of other sinners.

Do we really want a church to say everyone is welcome except Democrats or Liberals? How about fiscal conservatives, or maybe even Republicans. 

Most houses of worship have bulletin boards outside the door. All they have to do is put up “No Republicans Admitted.” Or maybe some other political group, or some ethnic group. After all, all bets are off now. Mitch McConnell has said so.

Let’s look at some other problems.

Suppose, just suppose, that the Supreme Court kills the Affordable Care Act. Our president has been talking about killing it since he came into office, how he and his party have a better, cheaper plan to replace it with. He even signed an executive order - toothless, of course, but a good photo op.

Now pretend it’s January, and insurance companies have sent out new bills for health insurance. Let’s even say they hold the line on rates, but have imposed surcharges.

That way, only the people in those high-risk groups will get higher premiums. You know, the elderly, diabetics, people with low incomes, people who have thick files in their doctors offices, people who live in states with higher than average rates of heart attacks or cancer.

Of course, our nation won’t have to worry about the cost of paying for abortions. They won’t be legal any more.

Now that might lead to some additional hospital costs, and it certainly will lead to dramatic increases in social service costs over the next four years. But, I’m sure our rapidly growing economy will be able to handle the extra costs with new taxes. Our President has said so.

Let’s finish by looking at something simple. Something really predictable.

We have to assume that there won’t be a massive Republican wave that puts the House and the Senate in Republican hands. Which means that Congress will get to vote on the President’s next budget.

I don’t think a Democratic majority in either house will be willing to negotiate a lot of things the President might want.

Would that create problems, especially with a newly-conservative dominated court which knows that the Constitution spells out very clearly where the money for a federal budget comes from?

Don’t think that’s possible? Well, it’s all on the table. Mitch McConnell said so.
Now for my last “I told you so.” Just imagine that President Trump gets everything he wants, that there is a great red wave and Republicans get all the power.

Well, they can deal with the massive Coronavirus infections that come from all those states that rushed to open beaches and bars, movie houses and high school and college football games.  All that need for more hospital beds, and more protective equipment, and that new untested vaccine that Donald Trump keeps talking about.

Maybe it will only be 70 per-cent effective, and not until people get a booster shot six months after the first one. Hey, that’s only 30 percent of our nation at risk.

And with six GOP-appointed judges on the Supreme Court, the argument that you need to control future appointments doesn’t carry the weight it once did. Maybe the Republican deficit hawks will come back, or the ones who feel our nation isn’t standing up to China and - perhaps - even Russia.

Well, who gets blamed for what?

It’s all on the table. Now, where did I hear that before?

Feed The Birds (an appreciation)

Let me take a little time today to get away from all the craziness in the world and share my morning routine.

I just finished breakfast, and all the animals are well-fed and happy. At least it looks that way, and I like to think so.

Now, there are some things I need to explain. I live in the suburbs, and there is a nice little woods in the back of my house. Not a big estate by any means, but a big koi pond (I dug it myself), a little lotus pond and some bird houses.

So, I feed the birds. I have become a bird watcher since the economy tanked, and it’s a pleasant way to fill some time. There is a flock of sparrows, some blue jays and cardinals for color, and some mourning doves which are regulars. More about that later.

First the routine.

Now I know that dogs can’t tell time. Even with digital clocks. Still, almost every day, my two dogs - red standard poodles - get up when the clock reads 6:00 and get me out of bed.

They are never off by more than two minutes. The sunrise comes at a slightly different time every day, and the only variable is that the cats sometimes wake the dogs a bit early, when they decide to share the bed with the dogs, me and my wife.

Anyway, I get up at 6 AM, dress quickly, and I’m downstairs to let the dogs out. I take one pill (do not take with food, the instructions say) and open two cans of cat food while four cats watch. Then they follow me into the living room where they get fed.

Then the dogs come in, get their dry food for breakfast - any liquid from the cat food cans gets mixed in - and it’s time to go out and feed the birds and the fish in the koi pond. The frogs living in the lotus pond are on their own, but they seem to be doing well.

When I come in, two of my cats are sitting by the front door, waiting to be let out on the porch. It’s screened, so they don’t go out and roam the neighborhood, which will add years to their lives.

All of this takes a half hour or so. The TV is on so I listen to the news, and I get to make breakfast, take the rest of my pills and watch the birds.

There is a real pecking order to them. Some sparrows go to the feeders hanging on stands, others go to the deck. So do the bigger birds. And you can see the territorial markers. The big birds have an invisible “do not enter” circle around them, but when they get to the part of the deck where I scatter some seed, the circle gets smaller.

Sparrows come and nibble around the edges, making the invisible circle smaller. And the more sparrows there are, the smaller the circle gets. Some of those small birds seem to have little circles of their own, and other birds won’t come near them.

Sometimes a squirrel comes down from a tree and the birds all fly off, an impressive sight. Then a dog comes to the back door - I don’t know how they are watching, but they do - and the squirrel will run up to a rail on the deck near a tree. But he waits until I go to the door before running up, and when I do the dogs (who have no chance to catch the squirrel) run out, bark happily, and run through the woods, just in case there is another squirrel they can chase.

When they come in, the birds come back.

It happens every day. Nice, predicable, orderly. Enjoyable.

Now, I admit that I am lucky in a lot of ways. First, it doesn’t cost very much to feed the fish and the birds and the dogs and the cats. Maybe the equivalent of a couple of cups of coffee a day.

I do remember my first job, many years ago, when my dinner for a day or two was a can of soup heated with an emersion coil - I didn’t make very much, and it made no sense to me to get a hot plate, and a pot and to clean everything up when I was done. I was a bachelor, and living on my own. 

Teenagers and new twenty-somethings will understand that. After a year, my tastes changed, and I was making a little more. 

Now I live in the suburbs, am happily married, and can enjoy the wildlife. And the predictable life. My two dogs are laying at my feet as I write this, and soon one or both of them will decide to go back up and lay on my bed with my wife. The cats will come in from the porch, and may decide to go to my bedroom as well.

Then there will be some complicated negotiations over where on the bed each of the dogs and cats will lay down. All with as much space as possible from the others.

Just like the birds.

Then I will feed the fish and turtles in their tanks, go upstairs, get into bed, and doubtless mess everything up.

Life can be messy that way.

It's The Little Things

Normally, I blog about big things, big ideas. Climate change, the national debt, the recklessness and wreckage of our President - things like that.

But, in truth, it is the little things in life that are really making me crazy. Little annoyances that are everywhere, that keep coming back over and over again.

Things that are oh so wrong, and yet can’t be put right.

I bet it’s the same with you. Let me share some of the most annoying things on my list and you’ll see what I mean.

First (in no particular order) is the way the greatest technological advances in communication in the history of mankind has turned to the greatest waste of time the world has ever seen.

In this category go junk mail and telemarketing calls, free video games and of course anything that involves either facebook, cute animals or the number of hits anyone gets on social media.

One example - a recorded voice comes onto my phone once or twice a day, telling me it is my last chance to upgrade my credit score. Clearly, after two months, I don’t think that recorded voice really understands what “last chance” means.

Two more examples 

- I have about 1,600 messages on my tablet, and my wife says I should really get rid of them. But, how could I delete a message that might be really important. And, in truth, I did delete about 300 last week. And guess what, they’re back.

-Every time I look up something on line, I am flooded with advertisements from people selling the same kind of thing. I wanted to know what our national debt was today, so I looked it up. Guess what - I got seven pop-up ads from banks and investment firms.

Then there are the ads with the small print on the bottom that only lasts a few seconds. Mostly harmless, but potentially devastating for people who believe them.

One features two delightful elderly ladies, talking to each other. They begin by chatting about a funeral, then one of them tells the other - with a big smile - that she had taken care of her final expenses, so her children won’t be burdened. And, she adds, it only costs her a few cents a day.

Well, some tiny words flash on the bottom. At first glance, I thought it would be something like “valid only in states west of the Mississippi” or “10 year limited payment period.” But, I was wrong.

What it says is that when you call the great big phone number they put up, you will be talking to a licensed insurance agent somewhere, who represents some company or another. And, it adds, the plan being talked about may not be offered in your state.

Then there is the one about reverse mortgages that says you will never lose your home. Not unless you borrow so much to pay taxes and other things that your debt reaches your equity. In other words, if you owe more than you can sell your house for, you aren’t going to keep living there. The bank will sell it off to recover the money they loaned to you - plus interest of course. But you get nothing.

Now I had people going to MAGA rallies and not wearing masks on my list of big annoyances, but dropped it to a minor thing. People want to gamble, fine. That’s their business.

Instead, a different annoyance on the same theme. Why is it that no matter what Trump supporter is being interviewed, they say exactly the same things. The same ideas expressed in the same words. The same diversions, and the same arguments that someone else, somewhere else, had done worse things.

And did I mention that we nearly ran out of brown sugar for my oatmeal yesterday? Now, that’s a world class annoyance.

Demonstrations - Good, Bad and Ugly

I can’t really count how many demonstrations I have covered over the years as a reporter. Dozens is certainly not enough. Scores is closer, but still runs short.

Hundreds? Well, that depends on what you mean by a demonstration. We’ll get to that later.

My point is that, amazingly, demonstrations are the one thing that Republican officials and Democratic officials really agree on. Deep in their heart, certainly. But, not the way you think.

What they all agree on is that demonstrations are good, as long as the demonstrators are demonstrating for something they want, or against someone they want to defeat in the polls.

Now, every politician knows the right to demonstrate - let’s call it public assembly - is guaranteed by the Constitution. Anti-war protesters and anti-racist demonstrators have exactly the same right as pro-war protesters and pro-racist demonstrators.

Pro-racist? Remember the ACLU going to court in 1977 to support a neo-Nazi group who planned to march through Skokie, a Chicago suburb where one out of every six Jewish residents was a Holocaust survivor or was closely related to one. Local officials denied them a permit. The ACLU sued and won.

Ancient history? Well, only a few weeks ago, a teenager who organized a Black Lives Matter protest in Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey was billed  $2,500 for police overtime, The bill was later rescinded after pubic outcry and threats of lawsuits over violating her Constitutional rights. What rights? The fact that you can’t limit public protests only to the people who can afford to pay thousands of dollars to hold one.

Which gets me back to my point. There are some demonstrations we all love, things that are supported by Republicans and Democrats, liberals and conservatives alike. A Fourth of July parade. A Christmas Tree lighting at Rockefeller Center, a menorah lighting in all the towns and villages that also have a Christmas Tree lighting and have a Jewish population, not to mention the annual Strolling of the Heifers in Vermont.

Then there are political parades. At least there were a long time ago. Torchlight parades for Abraham Lincoln eventually faded, and were replaced by torchlight parades by the Nazis in Germany and - believe it or not - by the Klan in the United States. One more black mark on the sometimes forgetful longing for the Good Old Days.

But, let’s get back to recent history, and my view of demonstrations. Everyone likes demonstrations, of course.  The question is where to hold them.

Four or five people picketing a school or town hall isn’t worth bothering about. But make it 40 or 50, and suddenly the mayor they are complaining about or the school superintendent who is uncomfortable has a problem to deal with.

 Not their message, of course. Those officials would never interfere with the people’s right to assemble. Just don’t do it here. Don’t come onto private property - and the school and the town hall are considered private property - and if it is a union, don’t come onto my business either.

There have been offers, many times over, to let demonstrators peacefully protest in a nice public park three or four miles away, where no one will see them. They can certainly be on a public street, but don’t block driveways, and don’t just stand there. Keep walking.

Student demonstrations, anti-war protests, pro and anti-abortion rallies have all encountered problems in the past. For police, it’s mostly a no-win situation. Keep order. Keep the peace. Keep protesters and counter-protesters apart.

The only way things really fall apart is when the police on the ground are seen as taking sides. That’s why one video of police driving past a 17-year-old with an assault rifle who just killed two people is so bad. People who side with the demonstrators will think all police are against them.

And don’t forget that there is always a point to a protest. People don’t like something, and feel that no one is doing anything about it. Now I am not suggesting mob rule will ever get our nation anywhere, but not even being able to discuss a problem with half the country is not a good thing.

And, if your response to a big demonstration is to ask “what do they want”  you really aren’t listening.

Name calling will only get you so far in this world. Unless, of course, you are really good at it. Then you can become a commentator and repeat the same lies over and over again, and make millions.

On that point, I was amazed to see that President Trump wouldn’t even talk about the reasons for one recent protest in Wisconsin. A police shooting was not the point for him, only the reaction to it.

It seems law and order is becoming a staple of President Trump’s campaign. Which is not a bad thing. Just add two words to the slogan - law and order and pardons. And, he gets to keep 10 per-cent of any of the books about him.

Don’t like that idea? Well, you can always get a group and protest. I know some nice islands in the Pacific where you could do it every day.