The Downside of the Upside

Well, it’s almost over, and I doubt that anything I write in the next few weeks will change anyone’s mind about the election.

Still, I want to get a couple of things down, just in case the near-impossible happens and the nation gets stuck with our incumbent for the next four years.

At least I can say “I told you so.” At best, I can make some interesting predictions about the doom that will come to the Republican Party, his evangelical supporters, and a whole batch of red states that will find themselves on their own in really choppy waters.

So, where to start?

I like the evangelicals as a starting place. Now some religious leaders - a lot of them actually - have learned that it’s not a good idea to play politics overtly. To not support only one party.

In New York City, we have a tradition in late October called the Al Smith Dinner, hosted by the Archbishop of New York and named for former Governor Alfred E. Smith, the first Catholic nominated for President by the Democratic Party.

Republicans and Democrats alike support the dinner, which raises funds for Catholic charities. Presidential candidates from both parties have spoken there, so did Bob Hope, Henry Kissinger and Tom Brokaw.

Now, what would happen if the Church is seen as a political player? When the desire for more political power - let’s say imposing a ban on abortions all across the nation - blends with support for a single party?

Which party gets Al Smith?

Our nation’s founders wisely chose not to adopt a national church. They felt all people had the right to worship as they choose. At least the ones who could legally vote.

But what happens if one group’s religious belief becomes our national policy - all with the best of intentions of course. What else gets changed next? And when political power shifts, what things will they be forced to do?

Suppose a lawsuit ends up in the Supreme Court, demanding that since every life is sacred, every child has the right to be fed and clothed and educated in a way that will lead to a good and fulfilling life. Who should be taxed to pay for it. How much would it cost to upgrade school districts in half the states in the nation?

Or suppose a lawsuit demands all public schools hold prayer sessions every morning before class. And a Muslim cleric wants to lead one of them. Or a Rabbi. Or a Buddhist Monk. Might work in some blue states, but how about the old Bible Belt?

That would be unlikely, unless those religious groups contribute to a political party, or a PAC and the people getting the money feel they have to pay their contributors back. That’s how politics works.

Another thought. Not every Church is packed with worshipers every Sunday. C.S. Lewis - one of my favorite Christian theologians -  once wrote about a man sitting in a church and seeing others who he knew cheated in business, were cruel to their family, and had committed other sins.

Then he thought that if he, with all his sins, could pray for forgiveness, God could also hear the prayers of other sinners.

Do we really want a church to say everyone is welcome except Democrats or Liberals? How about fiscal conservatives, or maybe even Republicans. 

Most houses of worship have bulletin boards outside the door. All they have to do is put up “No Republicans Admitted.” Or maybe some other political group, or some ethnic group. After all, all bets are off now. Mitch McConnell has said so.

Let’s look at some other problems.

Suppose, just suppose, that the Supreme Court kills the Affordable Care Act. Our president has been talking about killing it since he came into office, how he and his party have a better, cheaper plan to replace it with. He even signed an executive order - toothless, of course, but a good photo op.

Now pretend it’s January, and insurance companies have sent out new bills for health insurance. Let’s even say they hold the line on rates, but have imposed surcharges.

That way, only the people in those high-risk groups will get higher premiums. You know, the elderly, diabetics, people with low incomes, people who have thick files in their doctors offices, people who live in states with higher than average rates of heart attacks or cancer.

Of course, our nation won’t have to worry about the cost of paying for abortions. They won’t be legal any more.

Now that might lead to some additional hospital costs, and it certainly will lead to dramatic increases in social service costs over the next four years. But, I’m sure our rapidly growing economy will be able to handle the extra costs with new taxes. Our President has said so.

Let’s finish by looking at something simple. Something really predictable.

We have to assume that there won’t be a massive Republican wave that puts the House and the Senate in Republican hands. Which means that Congress will get to vote on the President’s next budget.

I don’t think a Democratic majority in either house will be willing to negotiate a lot of things the President might want.

Would that create problems, especially with a newly-conservative dominated court which knows that the Constitution spells out very clearly where the money for a federal budget comes from?

Don’t think that’s possible? Well, it’s all on the table. Mitch McConnell said so.
Now for my last “I told you so.” Just imagine that President Trump gets everything he wants, that there is a great red wave and Republicans get all the power.

Well, they can deal with the massive Coronavirus infections that come from all those states that rushed to open beaches and bars, movie houses and high school and college football games.  All that need for more hospital beds, and more protective equipment, and that new untested vaccine that Donald Trump keeps talking about.

Maybe it will only be 70 per-cent effective, and not until people get a booster shot six months after the first one. Hey, that’s only 30 percent of our nation at risk.

And with six GOP-appointed judges on the Supreme Court, the argument that you need to control future appointments doesn’t carry the weight it once did. Maybe the Republican deficit hawks will come back, or the ones who feel our nation isn’t standing up to China and - perhaps - even Russia.

Well, who gets blamed for what?

It’s all on the table. Now, where did I hear that before?