So, Why Hasn't The Earth Moved?

A lot has been happening in Washington this past week. That is, of course, something that I could have written almost any time in the past year.

Oh, the scandals are juicier, the higher-ups being named in indictments and plea bargains are higher and the level of casual cruelty and indifference is getting worse. But, that’s only a matter of degree.

The polls tell us that the President has lost two or three or - gasp - maybe even four percentage points from his hard core supporters. But, four percentage points does not a revolution make. Nor does it, by itself, win even a small election for a local mayor, let alone for the control of Congress.

So, why hasn’t the earth moved? Well, it shouldn’t be surprising. Let me give you my opinion. (I am being careful here. I don’t want to seem pretentious enough to know what is actually going on in Congress. Heck, most of the members of Congress don’t know what is going on, and that’s true for both parties).

Here’s my take on why almost everybody - liberal and conservative commentators alike - are missing the point. I think they have an unconscious assumption that those changing voters (and the undecided ones) are like engineers or scientists, carefully weighing events down to the last gram and balancing out the good points and bad points of each party, each candidate and the money (Emotional, not real. Think of it as political Bitcoins) they have already invested in their positions.

Remember, these are people who deny climate change because they believe it, or who think that if they got rid of government completely the world would be a better place. And, they could always hire a neighbor for a few dollars to fill the potholes in any road they use to get to work.

I reject that image. Instead, I see the current pool of voters like a group of people in an OTB parlor or at a race track, carefully reading the tip sheets and calculating whether or not to double down on their bets.

Think that’s stupid, or simplistic or insulting? Well, just three things to say to you. 

One - These are people who either haven’t made up their minds - if you trust the polls - or who have been going on blind faith so long it’s hard for them to change.

Two - Hillary. Remember all the things that organized Democrats did to make sure she defeated Bernie Sanders in the primary. And didn’t care how they did it, or how many Democratic supporters they turned off. Or how her whiz kids ran a campaign of not even spending money in states they thought weren’t worth campaigning in.

Three - The Donald. Insult people. Fire people. Hurt people. Lie to people. Bully people. Make a third of the country happy, and the others will be too cowed to stand up for what is right. And, keep talking so fast that they won’t recognize you can’t deal with hurricanes or getting roads repaired of keeping health insurance affordable. Or a lot of other things. Why do you think all those Republicans in Congress decided not to run for re-election? Because they were winning?

So, imagine for a minute that you are one of the undecideds, or one of the people who believed all of the promises that Donald Trump made, and never accomplished. Or made and did exactly the opposite. Or who thought in generalities like “we need a strong leader” or “we need a businessman.”

And somehow, you feel that things are going wrong, horribly wrong. And he blames the Democrats, or weak people in his administration. Or Bill and Hillary and the deep state. And, you went along for a while.

Now you have made a major political investment in The Donald. You bet your $2 on the race, and you doubled down and bet $5 or $10. Now you have a real investment in the race, and the Republican leaders in Congress are saying things like “the Democrats cheated” and “it will all be better when we elect a few Republicans more to the House and Senate.”

And as you drive down your street, you see political signs for Republican candidates, and you might notice there are fewer houses with them, but the ones that put them out are putting out two or three. Guess they have money for the campaign. Guess they must have rich supporters. And, the rich know what they are doing, otherwise they wouldn’t be rich.

So, do you go against everything you have been hearing and you have been saying for the past 18 months or so? Or do you just say “one more time,” and go out and vote the party line again.

Hey, life is still pretty good. What do you have to lose?

Just don’t think too hard about all those Republicans in Congress who decided not to run again, and who have been pretty quiet so far. Think of Paul Ryan and what he has been saying. Wait. What has he been saying?

Maybe they know what they have to lose.